Betting on Asia
1. Last December, the first East Asia Summit was launched in Kuala Lumpur. Sixteen leaders participated - the ten Leaders of ASEAN; China, Japan and Korea; Australia and NZ; and India. These countries make up half the world's population. It is almost a certainty that within a few decades, the centre of gravity of the world economy will shift to Asia because of the sheer number of hardworking, education-obsessed, high-saving human beings entering the global marketplace.
2. I say 'almost' because human beings are perfectly capable of messing things up. If we don't mess up the big things, it is entirely possible for us to give ourselves another 50 years of peace in Asia. During these 50 years, hundreds of millions of people will be raised up from the depth of poverty into the middle classes and they will change the course of world history.
3. Three big things which must not be bungled are: Sino-US relations, the new encounter of China and India, and the integration of Southeast Asia.
4. The relationship between the US and China is probably the most important relationship in the world today. Last week, the Pentagon issued its Quadrennial Defense Review which stopped short of calling China a threat but stated that "of all the major and emerging powers, China has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the US and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional US military advances absent US counter strategies". Happily that relationship has stabilised after September 11. It could not have been accidental that the US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick was photographed hugging pandas in Sichuan recently. Provided Taiwan does not become a flashpoint, China will be prepared to play the role of a major and responsible stakeholder in a world dominated by the US in many respects.
5. The evolving relationship between China and India also bears watching. For years after the war in 1962, these two countries kept each other at arm's length. In recent years, however, their relationship has improved and their border disputes are now being discussed seriously. How China and India engage each other in the coming years will affect all of us in Asia. Both have growing energy needs. China is already India's second largest trading partner and will become India's largest not too long from now. One remembers that the most important trading partner of British India in an earlier period was China. Like China, India will be its own pole with its own strategic interests and view of the world.
6. Between the great civilizations of China and India are the countries of Southeast Asia. Either we in ASEAN become more integrated or we will become the arena for big-power rivalry. An integrated ASEAN is good for everybody because such an ASEAN will be friendly to all the major powers and ensure the safe navigation of ships passing through our waters. If Southeast Asia is divided, the whole of Asia can be destabilised, reducing our chances of continued peace and economic growth. ASEAN has created the East Asia Summit with ASEAN at the centre precisely so that we optimise our own life chances in this century. But, for us to play this role, ASEAN must be more integrated and we must develop a stronger sense of being Southeast Asian.
7. However, there are two counter-currents which should worry us. One concerns the worsening relationship between Muslims and the West. The other is growing nationalism.
8. Pictures of the building housing the Danish Consulate in Beirut being burnt down remind us how sensitive religious divisions can be. It is hard for many in the West to understand why Muslims should be so sensitive to the Holy Prophet being caricatured. It is even harder for Muslims to understand how Westerners can be so insensitive. Many Muslims believe that the reason for the publication and re-publication of these pictures is pure and simple spite, and not the assertion of an abstract principle about the freedom of the press. They argue that if the freedom is without limit, how is it that anti-Semitic depictions are proscribed?
9. This debate will go on. Responsible leaders will try to counsel good sense but mass emotions are not so easily controlled on both sides. With the speed of the Internet, what started as an issue in Europe has become an issue in Southeast Asia as well. Both President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and PM Abdullah Badawi had to talk about it because their Muslim grounds had been aroused. In ASEAN, we must not allow similar misunderstandings between Muslims and non-Muslims to surface. When Salman Rushdie's book "Satanic Verses" was published some years ago, Singapore banned it because we knew it would cause trouble. In contrast, we did not ban "The Last Temptation of Christ" because the Christian ground and the Muslim ground are different. We did not make our decision based on abstract considerations of right and wrong but upon the realities of our multi-religious make-up. At the same time, most Muslims in Southeast Asia also recognise that they cannot expect non-Muslims to follow Islamic tenets like not eating pork or women covering their heads.
10. Another counter-current we must be aware of is growing nationalism among younger Asians. With growing accomplishments in various fields, it is not surprising that a younger generation of Asians should feel proud. There is no abstract Asian-ness. The pride is expressed as a Chinese or Korean or Japanese pride. Sometimes it is expressed in anti-West or anti-American terms. One reason why many of us in Southeast Asia insisted on Australia and New Zealand being included in the EAS was because we did not want it to be an Asians-only grouping.
11. Ethnic or national pride carried too far creates political problems. The Chinese Government banned "Memoirs of a Geisha" a couple of weeks ago because many young Chinese are chauvinistic and believe ridiculously that it is insulting for ethnic Chinese actresses to act the roles of geishas. The movie would generate protest in China and complicate Sino-Japan relations. Frankly, as an ethnic Chinese myself, I thought that the three actresses were outstanding.
12. When I read this morning that the Japanese Foreign Minister credited Taiwan's high educational attainments today to the fifty years of Japanese colonial rule, my heart sank because this could lead to a new round of unproductive debate in Northeast Asia. I can only imagine what the Korean reaction would be if the same remarks were made of Japanese colonial rule there. As SM Goh Chok Tong dwelt on Sino-Japan relations at some length in his speech to you this morning, I will not talk about it this evening.
13. Two years ago, one Chinese governor told me with some glee that he expected his province alone to win more Olympic medals than the whole of Japan. I admired his spirit of competition but I was troubled by the tone in which it was expressed. When China hosts the Olympics in 2008, I hope that the Chinese will not turn it into a grand display of Chinese nationalism. That will not be good for China at all.
14. Even between two countries as close as Australia and Singapore, mass emotions can be aroused over a matter of deep belief like the recent hanging of a drug-trafficker. Our two governments had to work hard to minimize the spillovers. For a few weeks, Singapore was caricatured in the Australian media in a way which perhaps should not have surprised us.
15. Like the relationship between Muslims and the West, the problem of growing nationalism can only be managed if we recognise the challenge and address it seriously. Unless controlled, growing nationalism in one country is bound to lead to competing nationalisms in others. With globalisation and the mass migration of peoples, competing nationalisms can turn groups against one another in a multi-ethnic society. Singapore as a multi-ethnic and multi-religious society is particularly vulnerable which is why we give this issue so much attention.
16. If we can get the big things right - Sino-US relations, Sino-Indian relations and ASEAN integration - and avoid being tripped up by religious division or rising nationalism, the future for Asia will be full of hope. I will place my bet on it.