Edited Transcript of Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan's Interview with Lian He Zao Bao, 29 December 2016

02 January 2017

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[Photo: MFA]

LHZB: So perhaps you can tell us a little more about what you have done since you assumed the position of Foreign Minister, such as how many places you have visited?

 

Min: Well, the last 15 months have been a very hectic and busy time. In these 15 months, I’ve made 44 trips. If you just count this year alone it’s 36. So it’s been a very hectic, punishing schedule. So of course there are some places where there are repeat visits so, for instance, , I’ve visited Malaysia seven times, and also multiple times to the US and China. Also, partly because of the ASEAN meetings, I had to go to Laos four times. So it has been a very, very punishing schedule.

 

I think the key point is that it has been a very busy year. It’s been a very punishing schedule. PM has also been travelling very, very heavily, more than usual. I think this hectic travel schedule by both the Prime Minister and by myself reflects the rapid change that’s occurring, sweeping throughout the world. And I notice Zaobao had its character of the year that was…

 

LHZB: … “变 (bian)”…

 

Min: “变(bian)” which is “change” right?

 

LHZB: Yah, correct.

 

Min: So in a sense our travel schedules reflect the reality that there has been immense change, rapid change. And in times like this, it’s crucial for us all to keep in touch, to understand what’s happening in the world around us, to nurture the relationships with the leaders, especially of those countries that have the greatest impact on our development and our progress. And, you know, even in this age of social media and videos, there’s still no substitute for face-to-face meeting, shaking someone’s hand, looking into their eyes, and trying to gain a deeper understanding and appreciation of what their hopes and anxieties are. So I think it’s inevitable that we’ve had to travel so extensively. Even for the coming year, I expect that it will still be a very busy year.

 

Anyway, the first point I wanted to say was that I agree with you that the character “变 (bian)” represents the mood of the times. Now, having said that there is great change, I wanted to make a second point – which is that it’s important to keep steady. And I was discussing with staff just now, if we had to come up with one Chinese character, they said it is “稳 (wen)”.

 

LHZB: “稳 (wen)”.

 

Min: “稳 (wen)” as in “稳定 (wen ding)” or…

 

LHZB: “Steady” and “Stable”.

 

Min: So in other words, if you take the analogy that seawaters are choppy and there are winds blowing, and your boat – because ours is a small boat – is bobbing around, it’s important for the people on board to keep steady, to keep calm, to keep resolute, to keep united as a team, and to have our eyes looking at the horizon, and preparing for what’s over the horizon, if you use that analogy. So, that’s our posture, that’s our attitude, that’s our perspective. Right? That yes there are periods of great change, there’s choppy waters, but we keep calm, keep steady, keep resolute, have a long-term perspective.

 

Now, in MFA terms, what that means is first, be very clear that in the midst of great change actually our permanent interests have not changed. So what are our permanent interests? Number one to remain a sovereign, independent country. Number two, to have as many friends and partners as possible, especially in the immediate region, so that means Malaysia, Indonesia and of course ASEAN. And beyond ASEAN it has to involve China, India, US, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and others. So, the imperative to have as many friends and partners as possible remains.

 

A third permanent interest relates to the fact that we are a small, tiny city-state. And that means we want to have a stable, international order, based on international norms and international law. A fourth imperative, or fourth national interest, is that because trade is such a big part of the way we make a living – trade is in fact three times our GDP – for us having an open, inclusive world with free trade is not just a negotiating point. It is an essential prerequisite for survival. I would define our permanent interests: to remain a sovereign and independent country; to have as many friends as possible; to have an international world order, a stable world order based on international law; and to keep free trade open, and to have an inclusive economic and political architecture.

 

Now, how do we achieve these things? So this is where I always remind my staff that foreign policy begins at home. Number one, we need to be united as a people. We are a multi-racial, cosmopolitan, tiny city-state in the heart of Southeast Asia. We have to be aware of who we are. We have ancestors from China, from India, the Malay Archipelago and elsewhere. We may have different histories, different literary traditions but we have to be one. So that’s the first – to be one people.

 

The second “how” is that we have to be successful. If we are not successful, meaning not able to make a living, not able to succeed in the various fields that we have chosen, nobody will pay attention to Singapore. The third “how” is we have to make what our Prime Minister calls “common cause” with our neighbours. That means we have to make ASEAN a success; we have to make our neighbourhood a success. So that everyone has a stake in each other’s success and will work together, will collaborate together, will aim for common destiny and common success. That’s “common cause” with our neighbours. The fourth how is to keep Singapore relevant and useful to the world. Because the world will quite happily go on without Singapore. But if we want the world to pay attention to us, if we want to have value to the world, we must be relevant. We must have something to offer, something useful to other countries. So that’s how I define our set of permanent interests and how we pursue them.   

 

So it’s a  time of great change, there’s a set of permanent interests and then there are some tactics or the “how” of achieving those - staying united, being successful, making common cause and being relevant to the world. So that’s how I look at all the events that are happening, both in the short-term and the long-term, without losing sight of where we want to go.

LHZB: But the thing is, like you said, the world is now full of changes and also they have actually turned inwards – nationalism, populism, extreme left and right. So when countries are doing such things and then we are still calling for, the fact that we want to build relationships with them, would it not even be more difficult?

Min: Yes, it’ll be more difficult but I would say it becomes more essential. At a time when nationalism, populism and even sometimes isolationism comes in, it’s even more important that a tiny city-state like us that is dependent on trade and a global world order, builds as many bridges as possible, understands why the mood is this way and understands how we can best help and be a constructive player in the world. So that’s why if you look at many of the speeches and things we’ve done over the last, say 15 months, in fact if I just look back, in November/December last year I was basically focused on getting the Paris Agreement for climate change done. I was one of the ministerial facilitators for the agreement. I’m very proud to have been able to play some role in bringing together what a few years ago was thought impossible. Now that doesn’t mean - although it’s signed and ratified - it doesn’t mean everything is going to be solved because even now there are still people who are arguing and saying maybe… But anyway that was one example where Singapore was able to be a constructive contributor on a global stage for a global agreement. So that’s one. And then if you look in the first, say, three months of 2016, the other big agreement I was focused on was the CSP with Australia. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Australia. I felt that it was very important because Australia is a continent with a population the size of Malaysia. Singapore is a tiny city-state, very dense, very compact but actually if you look at Australia and Singapore, we are complementary. We are not competing against each other, we are complementary. We can help each other to achieve our long-term objectives. They have lots of land, we have no land. They have agriculture, we have no agriculture. We are a port in the heart of Southeast Asia; they are a destination to the South of Southeast Asia. So it’s complementary. So getting that done, upgrading the economic relationship, upgrading the defence relationship, getting more space for military training, all this was also very crucial. So that was in the first quarter. For me at a personal level, my father passed away in March this year and just in that one month before he passed away, we made about three, four trips. I went to China, I went to Australia twice, and I was also in Laos.  And at a personal level it drove home the point that time is precious and the things that you do have to be meaningful, have to be significant because I was sacrificing time which was rapidly diminishing. But when I look back, I think my dad would have wanted me to do that and anyway this was meaningful, important work that had to be done. So I did it and I’m glad I did it. In the second quarter of the year, the most interesting trip was one where I accompanied the Prime Minister to Jordan, to Israel and Ramallah, which you were on.

LHZB: Yes.

Min: And I don’t know whether you remember going… we were in Jerusalem going to the Temple Mount, into the Dome of the Rock in Al-Aqsa Mosque. And I don’t know whether you realised what a special privilege we had that although most of us were non-Muslims, we had full access to the Dome of the Rock. We even went to the cave underneath the Dome which is a very holy site. And of course then after that they even brought us to Al-Aqsa. It was meaningful to me because, first, it illustrated the complex historical and political challenges in the Middle East. It is an extreme example of how race, language and religion can create very complicated, sometimes practically insoluble problems. But, I was also struck by the fact that little Singapore by being a friend, and by being principled and by being fair and balanced was welcomed by all parties. We were given unprecedented access. It made me treasure our own multi-racial peace and harmony. And the fact that others looking at us can also see that we have achieved that and therefore were prepared to welcome us and to give us such access. So that was another very meaningful trip.

LHZB: You mentioned principled, fair and so forth.

Min: Yes.

LHZB: These are the…?

Min: Attributes…

LHZB: The attributes...

Min: That people ascribe to Singapore. And it is these same attributes that ultimately, in the long-run, make people trust us, make people feel that they can welcome us and give us access. So what I’m saying is again… in Jerusalem I was thinking of home, you see. If we were not a united people, if we did not have peace and harmony between different religions, races, we would not have enjoyed that special access in Jerusalem. We wouldn’t have been welcomed by the Jordanians and the Israelis and the Palestinians. What we had on that trip was unique, was special.

LHZB: And of course we also went over to the Palestinian Authorities side.

Min: Yes. I mean there are people who are staunch friends and allies with one party or the other. There are very few people who are friends with all sides; and mind you it’s not that we say different things to different people. We are very straight forward, consistent. But what I’m saying is, done right and to me this was an example of, remember, success at home translating into credibility and welcome outside. And people trusting you because they know what you see is what you get and I say the same thing to you as I would say to the other person. I’m not playing games, I’m straightforward, I’m trustworthy, I’m reliable. But all these are Singaporean attributes. So anyway, that’s what struck me as I was walking around on Temple Mount. I was appreciating that. Frankly I was thinking about the amount of blood that has been shed there over thousands of years. And I was reflecting on the precious harmony that we have in Singapore. And I was grateful for the access that we had. So beyond just the sights I was thinking about the underlying dynamics of the situation.

In the third quarter of the year, one highlight was the State Dinner hosted by President Obama for Singapore. It was a wonderful sight to see Singapore flags fluttering on the main road, the main streets in Washington. And of course, the Obamas were very gracious hosts. That was a memorable trip. But then again, you listen to the speeches, it reflected not just the good relationship between President Obama and Prime Minister Lee.  But really over 50 years, a long, deep and wide-ranging relationship, where although they are so big and powerful as the world’s superpower, a tiny city-state like ours could still be of some value to them, that they would recognise us with an honour like that. Then came September at the end of the year, of course I have to spend quite a lot of time at the UN, at the UN General Assembly. I’ve lost count of the number of meetings I had. It’s the equivalent of what the diplomats call “speed dating diplomacy”.

 

LHZB: (laughs) Ok.

 

Min: That was the UN. And of course, from September, it was the ASEAN Summits and the trip to China for the G20 Summit in Hangzhou. I also made an extra trip to Shanghai, Hangzhou and Shenzhen. That’s because of my other hat – being in charge of our Smart Nation initiative. Because I wanted to get a sense of what’s happening in China on the technological front.

 

So, you know, each of these – so there have been many trips – but each of the different phases of the year reflected different aspects but they all come back to the same things –about success and unity at home, about making common cause with our neighbours in ASEAN and about making ourselves relevant to the world. That’s really how it is.  So the short answer to your question, at a time where some people are possibly turning inwards or nationalist or populist, is that we can’t do that. We don’t have that option because we are a tiny city-state dependent on trade but it just means we have to work even harder to build those relationships. But you see, the point I also want to make just now is, even as you build relationships, Singapore’s style is to be upfront, to be honest, to be transparent, to be consistent and to be reliable. It may sometimes give us some short-term challenges but it is essential for the long-term - to secure our position for the long-term and to make ourselves relevant and credible for the long run.

 

LHZB: Right. So having said that, success at home is really important but the thing is, I personally have the experience of people asking me, “Apart from LKY, what else do you have”. And thus after the post-LKY era, how do you think things have actually changed on the diplomatic front? Has it been quite difficult in that sense as well?

 

Min: I would say first, that Mr Lee Kuan Yew is irreplaceable. It’s once in a lifetime or more. You cannot escape that fact. And to a large extent, Singapore’s branding is tied up with his identity and Singapore’s success is also attributed to a large extent to his work and he gets full credit. It’s his achievement. But you cannot just keep hoping and harping on the past or wait, looking for another Mr Lee Kuan Yew. Mr Lee has given us an immense head start. He has given us key foundational principles and attributes, and as I said, the way we recognise our permanent interests and the way we pursue those permanent interests to a large extent were forged not just in the last 15 months but over the last 51 years. Are there challenges in the future? Of course, there are challenges in the future.  People will test us. People will want to see whether the same far-sightedness, the same resoluteness, the sense of determination, the same sense of dynamic balance is there. So I think we must expect this. So I take it as a given. People will test us and this is an ongoing test.

 

LHZB: You mean people are now testing us as well?

 

Min: Of course, of course. It is only natural you see. His passing meant the end of an era. Now, we are on our own and people would want to know. Are Singaporeans still united? Are Singaporeans still hungry for success? Are Singaporeans still confident about the future? And are Singaporeans confident enough in ourselves to be able to be open and inclusive and to be able to relate to outside countries – all bigger than us – with a sense of confidence and sure-footedness. I take all these as a given. It’s not just because I am the new Foreign Minister. I take it as a given. It’s a test for all Singaporeans.

 

LHZB: How do you think they are actually testing us in that sense?

 

Min: Well, the test will come. I just view all these as part of a learning journey for us. We do it right, we will strengthen our own unity, cohesion and strengthen our credibility. That’s why I come back to that character we discussed this morning. That sense of, I’m not saying that the world is steady. It’s like saying if there is a change externally, 外变 (wai bian) right, I want that word for internally …

 

LHZB: 内稳 (nei wen).

 

Min: People think I am being flippant when I say I don’t lose sleep about these things. We must take all these calmly, expectedly in the course of events, it’s how things will evolve. But we’ve got a lot of advantages. We’ve inherited a lot of advantages.

 

LHZB: When Mr Lee was around, he always said, especially in China, he insisted that we should deal in English, in conducting all the diplomatic talks and so forth.

 

Min: Yes, which is still done till today.

 

LHZB: Yes,which is still done, which is still good. It is to distinguish our ethnic identity and political identity.

 

Min: Actually, let me try to give you my personal take on this. As I said before, Singapore is a multi-racial city-state in the heart of Southeast Asia. The majority of us have ancestors from China but our destiny is not to be a little China or little India or little Malaysia. Our destiny, which we embarked on fifty-one years ago, is to be an independent, sovereign Singapore but the source of our rivers includes the Malay archipelago, China, India and indeed now all over the world. It is important for us to forge our own identity and yet to be able to appreciate our linguistic and cultural heritage and to have self-confidence. So the example I shared with my staff just now is that I’ve now been in politics for, now, fifteen years, I’ve been to Beijing, I’ve been to New Delhi, had dinner in the Great Hall of the People, I’ve made speeches in Beijing, made speeches in New Delhi, gone to the Rashtrapati Bhavan, you know the equivalent of the Istana in New Delhi Every time I go to Beijing or to New Delhi, the thought at the back of my mind is that if my ancestors had not left China and India, more than a hundred years ago, I don’t think I would be in the Great Hall of the People, meeting the President or the Prime Minister or the Foreign Ministers of China and India. In other words, I appreciate my heritage but I also know the only reason I’m having the opportunities I have today is because I’m Singaporean, and born in Singapore. And so, my hope for all Singaporeans is that we can both appreciate our heritage and yet also have self-confidence and be secure in our own identity, and our collective future destiny as Singaporeans - not as Chinese or Indians or Malays – but as Singaporeans. And I feel very strongly that that sense of confidence is needed. Now, that’s why when we meet in Beijing our Prime Minister will use English, not because he doesn’t understand Mandarin – very often he’s correcting the interpreter.

 

LHZB: Yes, yes… I sat in those… yes.

 

Min: But it’s a reflection that we are “same, same and yet different.” Our Prime Minister understands and certainly, socially, you use Mandarin but it is our uniqueness, our multi-racialness, our location in Southeast Asia, our openness to new ideas, different ideas, our ability to achieve harmony and balance – that’s what makes us useful today, even to a much bigger ancient civilisation like China, or India, the Middle East or the US and to ASEAN.

 

So for instance, I believe many Singaporeans especially those with Chinese ancestry, take pride in China’s success. And that’s why when I tell my Chinese counterparts, we actually want you to succeed, we are truly your big supporters, and we are proud when you succeed, I mean it in all sincerity. At the same time, I am not a Chinese citizen. And in fact, our key value to you is the fact that Singapore is an independent sovereign nation in the heart of Southeast Asia, which has been able to absorb and synthesise ideas, identity, concepts, ways of organising society, and ways of conducting business, in quite a unique way. And that is what makes us relevant to China, to India, to the US, to Europe, and to ASEAN. So we have to get this… we have to appreciate our uniqueness, at the same time appreciate our common heritage of culture and language. I don’t believe we are culturally identical, but there is some cultural affinity. It leaves us in a better position to understand, to appreciate and sometimes to arbitrate these differences. So we must never, never just become the same. We must always be “same same, but different.”

 

LHZB: I’m asking this because I’ve been hearing a lot of tales from people that when they travel to China now, amidst all these incidents that have happened, they have been called names, like汉奸(han jian), you know, you betray your own ethnic…

 

Min: I think first it’s very uncouth and uncultured to say that. Secondly I personally have not met any leader that has engaged in that kind of conversation but more…

 

LHZB: Not leaders but…

 

Min: But more fundamentally, and that’s where my point is that yes I am proud of my Chinese heritage but I am not Chinese and I am different. But my difference actually makes me a better partner, a better contributor, a better helper for your future success. So you must understand that there’s a deeper meaning to this.

 

LHZB: Which I think a lot of Singaporeans may have a bit of difficulty trying to tell their Chinese counterparts…

 

Min: But that’s why for a serious newspaper like Zao Bao, which reflects on language, on culture and identity, this is a serious discourse that needs to occur. Not externally, it has to occur first internally. Who are we? What makes us special? What keeps us together? What makes us successful? How do we be useful and relevant to people in the future? You know, I’m a staunch believer in the importance of language, culture, values, identity. You know it’s like the… I’m sure there’s a Chinese proverb about the first thing is to know yourself?

 

LHZB: Yes,自知(zi zhi)

 

Min: You must know yourself, then you can have relationships. Then, you can help, you can collaborate, you can trade, you can do things together. So I would say, to all Singaporeans, be steady. Be steady, spend some time, reflecting on yourself, appreciate our own unique circumstances, and then have some quiet confidence. I don’t mean arrogance, but quiet confidence. That’s the posture which I try to take.

 

LHZB: But Minister, as much as you know, whether it’s SCS, the South China Sea, or whether it’s Terrex for now, a lot of Singaporeans are thinking, hey can’t you just do something you know, if the relationship is so good with China, can’t you, can’t the Ministry of Foreign Affairs just say something to the… they view it as very simple… you can just…

 

Min: I look at it long term. In the long term, things are still in play. Do we have a long, wide-ranging, mutually beneficial relationship? Both in the last 50 years – actually, well in the case of China it’s now 25 years of diplomatic relations – but actually our relationship, you know, goes way before that. And the answer is yes, and for the future, clearly it’s yes. That’s why in Suzhou – you’ve seen it, Tianjin – been there, and now Chongqing. That’s why Singapore is the top foreign investor in China. We believe in them. And we – it’s not just talk, we put our money where our mouth is – we hope they succeed. In trade, they’re our biggest trading partner.

 

And these facts are not just of yesterday, but even for the foreseeable future. So the point is, you take a step back from all the smaller – what I would call tactical – issues, the strategic big picture is that we’re on the same side, and there’s much work to be done. Even on the diplomatic front, if I look over the next one year, even if you talk about the South China Sea as an example, because we are the current coordinator in ASEAN for the ASEAN-China relationship, we are doing a lot of work. We have to settle the framework for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, settle CUES, the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, the MFA hotlines. So there’s real work, substantive, constructive work to be done. At the same time, even as we are doing all this, and even as our economic investments and trade and collaboration are deepened, it’s to be expected that, because we are this tiny city-state dependent on trade, from time to time there can be differences. And I think that you have to expect that there can be differences, and in fact true friendships don’t demand complete, identical positions. But actually true friendship depends on trust, on mutual respect, and on a commitment to work together for the future. So, that’s why I don’t want to overplay or excessively paint, inflate the differences. I don’t want to paper them over and say everything is the same, but I don’t want to inflate them beyond what they are.  On the South China Sea, you know our position. PM has said it. One, peace, stability …

 

LHZB: …Non-claimant, yes.

 

Min:  Because trade is crucial to us, so much of it flows through there. Number one, just peace, stability, freedom of navigation, overflight. Number two is that, for us, because we are so small, of course Singapore has to say we believe in international law. Now, having said that, we also know that big countries have got options that small countries don’t have. Third, we want to maintain ASEAN unity, we want ASEAN to remain united, maintain ASEAN centrality. We want ASEAN to be neutral. And basically, for as long as it is possible, we want to avoid being forced to choose sides. Of course we know the most important bilateral relationship in the world right now is how China and the United States engage with each other. We want to be friends with all. We don’t want to be forced to choose sides. So even if from time to time it means I’m going to have differences with the US or differences with China, we will have to sail through that, keeping an eye not just on the wave in front of us, but looking at the horizon, beyond the horizon. And it’s important for Singapore to continue to be neutral, open, inclusive, fair, balanced, and be part of that mutual circle of friends that President Xi Jinping talked about. So there’s a larger strategy behind all these things.

 

LHZB: Sure, sure. But Minister, as much as we would want to take a long term view, look through the historical lens and so forth, the fact of the matter is immediate incidents can sway peoples’ emotions a lot. It’s just like in an election, a single issue can actually sway people.

 

Min: Yes, yes…

 

LHZB: So, how do we at the same time, take a longer term view and yet addressing current issues.

 

Min: Well, number one is don’t make things worse la. Don’t inflate, don’t incite, don’t aggravate the situation. Stay calm, keep channels open, communicate. I may not say exactly what you want me to say, but more important is I need you to understand why I take the positions I take. And I need to understand also why you take the positions that you take. Singapore cannot demand compliance; we’re too small to do that. But we can appreciate the differences, and we can make sure that the differences do not distract or interrupt the long term strategic relationship. And you can do this… So, like I said, number one is don’t aggravate. But number two is don’t be a doormat either. That once we do that, we will lose our value, and it is not possible for us to do that. That’s why I come back to this sense of steadiness. In diplomacy, you need to be both courteous and firm, and you need to know how to project both elements. You must also understand Singapore will apparently come under more pressure, precisely because people know Singapore can’t be bought, Singapore can’t be bullied, and when Singapore says or does something, it is a carefully thought out, reasoned position. But that is precisely what makes us valuable. But because we have some value, you must expect some pressure.

 

LHZB: (laughs) Right. So, having said that, we understand that our success is very important, and that we must be relevant and valuable and so forth. Then the question is, Singapore being so small, what kind of value can we give to, say, the major powers?

 

Min: Well, actually here you have to wait for the Committee on Future Economy report. Because, in fact, Singapore itself and our economy and our society is also changing rapidly. And that is actually another longer interview, which as I said must involve the CFE as well. But that’s why, apart from Foreign Affairs, I have also been focused on the Smart Nation side of it, because my key focus in Smart Nation is jobs, jobs, jobs. What are the jobs that are disappearing? What are the new jobs? What are the new skills, capabilities, what are new opportunities Singaporeans, and Singapore start-ups, and Singapore companies need? And the purpose of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is to pursue peace in the region, to build relationships so as to give Singaporeans as many opportunities as possible. My personal assessment is that the key revolution now is actually a technological revolution and that is disrupting politics, society, culture, identity. But even in the midst of such danger, again you have a Chinese term for this right, crisis and opportunity.

 

LHZB: Yes, 危机(wei ji)

 

Min: There is, we have to look for the opportunities in such troubled uncertain times. So to me, it is all part of the same, which is why all my efforts on the foreign front all lead back home. It starts at home and it leads back home. Peace, stability, harmony, economic success - it’s a whole package and that must include language, culture, identity, values. Without all that, we can’t make it.

 

LHZB: Minister, can I also bring you back to ASEAN? You have stressed many, many times the importance of our role in ASEAN and that ASEAN has a relatively younger population, but Singapore is really odd, you know, in the whole of ASEAN. Our population is aging. We are at a different stage of development. So how do you see our role in ASEAN then?

 

Min: Well, first, let’s look at ASEAN as a whole. Today, there are 629 million people. Of that 629 million, one quarter are between the age of 15 to 30, which means ASEAN as a whole will continue to remain young for the next 20 to 30 years. This is actually in stark contrast to Northeast Asia, at least if you look at China, Korea, Japan, if I ask you what will the demographics look like in 2030 or 2050. They would actually be quite aged societies in contrast to ASEAN which will still remain young, or middle age, which means the demographic dividend is not yet harvested. If you look in terms of the economics, today, our combined GDP is US$ 2.43 trillion. The estimate is that it will go up by four to five times, so by 2030, it should exceed US$10 trillion.  What that means is that by 2030, in terms of size of economies, it will make us number four or number five because you will be talking about China, US, EU, Japan and India. We will be in that league.  I think the estimate is that 60% will be middle class by 2025, so what all this means is that in fact ASEAN is a huge opportunity.  Huge opportunity for us, and when I say us now, I mean for all ASEAN citizens, because we are a growth area, we will be a growth area at a time when many other parts of the world are aging and slowing down. And in fact, even if you look in terms of China, I think that by 2025, 2030, ASEAN will be one of the largest trading partners for China. We often think of them as a giant, but do not forget that ASEAN as an account will also increasingly be an important account even for a place that is as big as China. So my point is there is great opportunity. The second point, however, is that in order for that great opportunity to be harvested, we must have peace and stability within ASEAN itself, and it is essential that in the way ASEAN evolves, the primary goal is to make sure that there is peace, there is no war, there is no fighting amongst ASEAN members, and with peace, comes opportunities for economic integration, and with economic integration, now we have the ASEAN community, we have got great prospects ahead.  Now, having said all that, then your question is, what is the role of Singapore?

 

LHZB: Yeah, which is so different from the rest.

 

Min: Well, if we do it right, because we are at the heart of Southeast Asia, because we are a key node, a key port, a key airport and a key digital nexus. That doesn’t mean that there are no ports being developed in Malaysia and Indonesia, it doesn’t mean that no new airports are being expanded or built in Thailand or Indonesia. All those things will happen.  But as long as we remain part of that network, as long as we are in the centre of that network, as long as we try to be more open, more efficient, more reliable, more trustworthy, we can be the metropolis in the heart of ASEAN. And the agreements, and the arrangements, the free trade agreements that we make with our neighbours, the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Australia, gives Singapore and Singaporeans opportunities and space that goes beyond the borders, the confines of Singapore. So I think if we get it right, Singapore will continue to thrive if we can get ASEAN to thrive.  And ASEAN has every prospect of thriving if we don’t mess it up by making sure that there is security, that we control terrorism, that we ensure peace between the states of ASEAN, and that we remain united, and open and neutral to all the super powers. So that is why Singapore is such a fervent believer in the importance of ASEAN, keeping ASEAN united and maintaining ASEAN centrality. And from time to time, that will mean saying no to even big powers and we must accept that and we must expect that, and we must do it in a non-provocative way, with quiet self-confidence. That is essential.

 

LHZB: I think the question that many has asked is that ASEAN is one which goes with consensus, but it is also sometimes difficult to achieve.

 

Min: That’s difficult to achieve but what is important is to understand why ASEAN works by consensus. The reason we had to do this, well, I can’t say we because I wasn’t there at the founding, but the reason I believe this is such a difficult but essential attribute of ASEAN is because we are so different.  The ten of us are so different in terms of size, in terms of ethnicity, in terms of language, in terms of state of development, even our economies are different, and politically we are so different. When you try to get 10 countries that are so different into a single functioning entity, and if you don’t work by consensus, there’s always the danger of being bullied, of forming factions, of all kinds of politics that come with that kind of system.  With a consensus system, it provides reassurance to everyone, no matter how big or how small, or how different you are, your interest have to be taken into account. So I see the necessity for consensus is directly related to the diversity of ASEAN. And in fact, it is needed to give everyone that assurance because otherwise you cannot get such a disparate grouping to work together. And if you look at the recent travails in Europe and the EU, in fact that is a salutary warning that even if you want to come together, the pace and the sequence and the rules and the processes of that coming together has to be very carefully considered. So despite all the diplomatic challenges of achieving consensus, I am not in a hurry to go and change that consensus system. It’s okay, just give the diplomats more work. But I think this is essential for ASEAN to achieve its longer term potential.

 

LHZB: Minister, one last question before we go on to the video. You are so busy, you are flying everywhere, you are travelling. So who takes care of the constituency?

 

Min: Well, I still do, I try to make sure that I don’t travel on Mondays when I have my Meet the People Sessions.

 

LHZB: You have been able to do that?

 

Min: Mostly, I won’t say all, but mostly. So, try not to travel on Mondays. If possible, try to be around on weekends, and then of course, I have a great team of volunteers who are there literally all the time. And I also live in my own constituency, so people will see me from time to time at the market or shopping, or even walking around with my family. So it’s a challenge but like I said, because I believe foreign policy begins at home, it is essential to keep your home-front stable.

 

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