KEYNOTE ADDRESS FOR
LKYSPP CONFERENCE ON “SINGAPORE’S ASEAN CHAIRMANSHIP 2018: TOWARDS RESILIENCE”
28 MAY 2018
Distinguished Guests
Ladies and Gentlemen
1 Good morning. It is my pleasure to be here today at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
Introduction
2 Since ASEAN’s formation in 1967 at the height of the Cold War, it has achieved remarkable achievements, as we all know – peace, prosperity and geopolitical stability, which are hardly a given in a region as diverse as Southeast Asia. Yet, the Member States found a common interest in maintaining a stable environment, and fostering cooperation to pursue economic growth and expand trade.
3 This brought tangible benefits to Southeast Asia. ASEAN’s combined GDP amounted to USD 2.55 trillion in 2016. Between 1967 and 2016, ASEAN’s GDP has grown 125 times! So by 2030, it will form the world’s fourth largest economy, behind the European Union, the United States and China. And with about 60% of our 630 million strong population below the age of 35, the region’s workforce and consumer market can continue to boost economic growth in the next few decades.
4 But ASEAN’s ability to realise the promises of a vibrant and growing region will ultimately depend on whether we can navigate the geopolitical and economic challenges ahead. There is no silver bullet, and the geopolitical issues are completely and especially complicated, as they relate to the nexus between managing the interests of the big powers, and the domestic politics of other ASEAN Member States.
ASEAN’s Challenges
5 Let me share with you some of the challenges of ASEAN.
6 First challenge, the world’s centre of gravity is shifting eastwards. New powers, including China and India, are growing in influence. If we look back in history, Southeast Asia has always provided a trading link between the ancient civilisations of India and China, and between the Far East and the West – which means that we have always been exposed to the tidal pulls of economic and therefore strategic competition amongst the major powers.
7 The key challenge ahead, is whether ASEAN can collectively maintain our relevance and unity, and seize the opportunities offered by our strategic location, or otherwise be pulled by superpower rivalry in the region. This was precisely the strategic consideration underlying ASEAN’s formation in 1967. Back then, intra-regional ties were testy - but despite the tenuous relations, the founding ASEAN Member States concluded that they could gain strength through solidarity.
8 ASEAN ultimately wants to be friends with all, and wants to be able to collaborate with all countries – big and small – in order to benefit our region and to expand opportunities for our peoples. We do not wish to take sides.
9 Second challenge. The digital revolution is changing how we live, work, and play; it is changing the skills set we need to thrive in that world. Robotics, artificial intelligence, and big data are redefining many jobs – for us to capitalise on this digital revolution, we will need to equip our people with the necessary skills. We will need to be innovative, and make creative use of technology so that no one will be left behind.
10 Third challenge, unconventional security threats such as terrorism and cyber-attacks have become increasingly prevalent in our region. ISIS is supposed to have been defeated militarily in Iraq and Syria, yet it continues to propagate its dangerous ideology and foment trouble, particularly in Southeast Asia, which is a receptive and sometimes fertile ground for these ideologies. The recent terrorist attacks in Surabaya and Pekanbaru speak to the urgent need to enhance regional counter-terrorism efforts. We are also witnessing more cyber-attacks as we push for greater digitalisation. The WannaCry attack in May 2017 affected more than 200,000 users across 150 countries, causing a global loss of 5 billion USD. In today’s “Internet age”, anonymity and fragmented echo chambers across the world have also made it easier for criminal networks to grow.
11 Fourth challenge, the open and rules-based multilateral trading system that has underpinned ASEAN’s prosperity for decades is under pressure. While economic globalisation has brought benefits, in many parts of the world where people are against free trade, they feel very aggrieved that the system has not served them well. This has led to protectionist sentiments gaining ground. This is something which all countries must be very conscious of; we must ensure that our peoples can continue to benefit from free trade.
12 The spotlight is now on the trade friction between the US and China. A full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies will make everyone a loser as the global economy is so much more integrated now. It would for one, have serious ramifications on ASEAN Member States as trade in goods accounts for 90% of ASEAN’s GDP, and the US and China accounted for about 26% of ASEAN’s total merchandise trade of USD 2.2 trillion in 2016. It is also worrying that in Europe, growing middle-class anxiety, Brexit and the polarisation of politics into the extremes left and right have also precipitated a surge of protectionism and economic nationalism.
Singapore’s ASEAN Chairmanship
13 Singapore’s chairmanship of ASEAN with the themes of “resilience” and “innovation” are therefore not mere buzzwords, but encapsulate what ASEAN needs to be, in order to confront these challenges that lie ahead of us. We need to maintain ASEAN’s unity and centrality, enforced by an open, inclusive, and ASEAN-led regional architecture. The key diversities among ASEAN Member States inevitably define our core identities, and colour the calculations of national interest and intra-ASEAN relations. In fact, I believe we may be the most diverse grouping in the world. You have ten different countries – different countries with difference in size, difference in population, and difference in religion. We’ve got political systems that range from absolute monarchy, to democracy, to military arrangements. But it is equally important to recognise the benefits of regional integration to our peoples and businesses.
14 With this in view, our Leaders adopted the Vision for a Resilient and Innovative ASEAN at the 32nd ASEAN Summit in April this year. The Vision Statement articulates our overarching vision for ASEAN’s future, sets out key principles that underpin this collective vision, and places political impetus on a slate of concrete initiatives that ASEAN will undertake to realise it.
15 Our Leaders have also launched two flagship initiatives at the April Summit.
16 First initiative, they established the ASEAN Smart Cities Network. The Network, of an ecosystem of 26 pioneer smart cities, which will come together to articulate a common framework for smart city development in ASEAN, and craft city-specific action plans. This network of cities will exchange solutions, share mistakes and how to avoid them, and enhance the delivery of public services across ASEAN. It can also help boost ASEAN’s infrastructure needs, and improve the lives of our people. ADB estimates that the total infrastructure needs in ASEAN from 2016 to 2030 will be USD2.8 trillion. As part of this initiative, Singapore hosted the 1st ASEAN Smart Cities Governance Workshop last week, and I am excited to see what innovative projects our cities come up with, and am very pleased that many of ASEAN’s external partners have conveyed their support for this project.
17 Second initiative, our Leaders adopted the ASEAN Leaders’ Statement on Cybersecurity Cooperation. This Statement was conceptualised to make digitalisation viable – it assures our people, businesses, and external partners of a robust cybersecurity regime in ASEAN. It captures ASEAN’s vision for a peaceful, secure, and resilient cyberspace, which will enable economic growth, deepen connectivity, and improve living standards for all.
18 It was also significant that the April Summit saw renewed focus at the Leaders level to conclude the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, by the end of 2018. The RCEP will transform 45% of the world’s population and about a third of its GDP into a single, integrated market. In conjunction with the recently launched CPTPP, it will form an intermediate step towards the eventual vision of an Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area. ASEAN has proven itself as an example of economic interdependence generates growth and opportunity, and we must walk the talk on free trade to bring these important initiatives to fruition.
19 Other efforts are also underway to boost ASEAN’s integration and community-building efforts across three ASEAN pillars of political and security, economic and socio-cultural cooperation.
20 To facilitate trade and enhance regional connectivity in ASEAN, the ASEAN Single Window, an online platform to expedite customs clearance via the electronic exchange of information across borders, is now operational in five ASEAN Member States[1]. The remaining five countries will come on board soon. Once fully established, it will reduce transaction costs for businesses and facilitate the clearance of goods within ASEAN.
21 The Model ASEAN Extradition Treaty (MAET) has also been finalised at the working level. We look forward to completing it and commencing work on an ASEAN Extradition Treaty as the next step, to strengthen ASEAN’s resilience and capacity to combat transnational crime, and to enhance cooperation within ASEAN to ensure respect for the rule of law.
22 To inculcate our youth with a greater sense of belonging to ASEAN, we will also renew the Singapore-ASEAN Youth Fund with a $5 million dollar top-up to support initiatives by ASEAN youths. This fund supports ground-up initiatives by ASEAN youth in areas such as community service and leadership development. Since its establishment in 2007, the fund has supported numerous meaningful projects that have benefitted over 22,000 youths. And as part of Singapore’s continued commitment to engage and empower ASEAN’s youths through the use of sports and technology, and culture, we will host an ASEAN e-Sports event - the first of its kind in the region - in August later this year. Teams from all ten ASEAN Member States will compete in a regional ‘League of Legends’ tournament at the Singapore Sports Hub.
23 Now ladies and gentlemen, as you can tell, we have had a busy start to the year, and Singapore will continue to facilitate an ASEAN agenda aimed at boosting regional integration and making our region resilient and future-ready. We will also continue to facilitate closer ties between ASEAN and key external partners by creating more opportunities to boost engagement at both the strategic and functional cooperation levels. This would include working together on deliverables such as the ASEAN Smart Cities Network and cybersecurity cooperation.
24 However, the Chair cannot do it alone; and Singapore is too small to be the leader. ASEAN’s strength lies in our collective interest and willingness to work together to build a resilient and innovative ASEAN. We must continue to remind ourselves that if we do not hang together, we will hang separately.
25 I will end my remarks with a question by then Singapore Prime Minister Mr Lee Kuan Yew at the closing of the first ASEAN Heads of Government Meeting in Bali in 1976. He said and I quote “Up until yesterday, a favourite question posed by ASEAN-watchers was: “has ASEAN a future?” When our officials follow up on the agreements we have reached at this meeting, their question will now be “what kind of future is it to be for ASEAN?” end quote.
26 So ASEAN’s future is in our hands – if we can stand together and never take for granted, what is good for our region, I am confident that we can realise our Leaders’ vision for a Resilient and Innovative ASEAN.
27 Thank you all very much.
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[1] Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam