05 Jun 2016
Thank you. First let me welcome all of you here. I will try not to drone on and I know you would really want to hear from Admiral Harris. And I’ve met him and I can assure you that the words that he has will be cogent, will be relevant and I think will set the stage for an interesting and robust question and answer session. Now, the key point which I want to make today, is to avoid a zero-sum mentality. If you forget everything else, just bear that in mind. A zero-sum mentality. And let me try to then give some meat to that philosophical construct.
Singapore is a tiny island city-state. We’re just 50 years old. So therefore, the perspectives which I offer, by definition, come from the fact of this fundamental constraint. For Singapore, and here I am going to address Admiral Harris, the United States has been a benign influence, a constructive factor in the development of Singapore, and indeed certainly for the founding members of ASEAN, for almost 50 years. In fact, it’s more than 50 years. It has given us economic opportunity, it has given us access to technology, access to markets; and in a sense, part of Singapore’s success is because we were globalised by definition and by the absence of choice. But we were forced to adopt a globalised outlook 50 years ago before the word “globalisation” became in vogue. So the first sub-point there is that the US has been a major benign influence in the development, particularly for the founding members of ASEAN.
The second point is that we should also recognise that in the last 50 years, the key transformative narrative in our part of the world and indeed, I would argue even internationally, has been the story of China. In particular, China’s opening up in the late 70s and this incredible transformation which is historically unprecedented. And we believe, and I say “we” from the Singapore perspective, that the peaceful development of China is increasing integration into our region. And the opportunities for China to make a difference on a global stage, if properly managed, would be an enormous constructive force. And the point to understand is that this is an ongoing evolution. It is still work in progress and there are many moving parts. And we believe that there are great opportunities. In fact, the opportunities far outweigh the risk. And we believe that there are opportunities for substantial bilateral cooperation. In the case of Singapore, you know that we've had government-to-government projects over the past couple of decades - in Suzhou, in Tianjin and now more recently in Chongqing. And you may find it curious that even a tiny city-state like Singapore has, in the past three years, been the largest conduit for foreign direct investment in China. And for most ASEAN members, China is either number one or number two, as far as our trade volumes are concerned. So China is a here and now reality, and it is a growing reality.
But the key point that I wanted to make today is that what we are trying to avoid in Southeast Asia is to avoid a zero-sum mentality. Because if you get caught in a zero-sum mentality, you will be forced to make some very invidious choices. And here, with due respect to my American friends, this concept that you are either for us or against us is unhelpful. But that is the same approach that I would take with my Chinese friends as well. So, we don’t want to have to make invidious choices. But in fact we believe that the American presence, and the rise and peaceful development of China, gives all of us enormous opportunities – opportunities on a historically unprecedented scale. And therefore much of the talk over the past two days has been about the South China Sea. And this, frankly, is just a symptom. It's a symptom of the fact that there is an ongoing strategic evolution occurring and it just so happens that the South China Sea is the focal point. And it is, in a sense, a test case of how we will manage this ongoing evolution without upsetting or destroying the enormous opportunities that are available to the rest of us.
It is against such a backdrop that ASEAN will celebrate its golden jubilee next year. At its inception, not many were optimistic about ASEAN’s prospects in a deeply heterogeneous region. After all, we are a grouping of ten different countries who make decisions by consensus! Yet, despite the ebb and flow over the decades, ASEAN has not only survived but also prospered. One of the key purposes of regional organisations like ASEAN is to make war among ourselves unthinkable. If we can continue to do that, it is already an enormous achievement. On top of that, ASEAN has expanded our region’s strategic space by anchoring our engagement of all the major powers in a regional architecture that is open, inclusive and with ASEAN in the centre. Of course not all is perfect but ASEAN has actually come a long way.
Beyond that, we are also deepening our own integration within ASEAN. The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community last year is a major milestone. Individually, we are 10 small economies, price-takers in an increasingly globalised world. But together, we are a market with an estimated GDP of US$2.5 trillion and over 620 million people, of which about 65 percent are under the age of 35. This means a sizeable consumer base, and a dynamic and youthful workforce. And in fact it means that our demographic dividend has not yet been fully harvested.
ASEAN is also economically linked to the wider region through its network of free trade agreements (FTAs) with countries like Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. We are committed to growing such networks as we make further progress on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), which are important building blocks towards establishing an FTA of the Asia Pacific. If we succeed in building this economic architecture, guess who will be at the centre of it? ASEAN. So, ‘ASEAN Centrality’ is not just a pie in the sky – it can be done. With the caveat that we have an inclusive strategic architecture, show mutual respect that all countries are equal regardless of size, and pursue the peaceful resolution of conflicts.
Ok, so maybe I will stop here but these are the key points I wanted to make. Avoid a zero-sum mentality, do not force us to make invidious choices, and that China’s rise and opening up is the transformation of our lifetime – in fact, historically unprecedented transformation. And therefore in the typical oriental way, there are both great opportunities and great dangers. And amidst all this, ASEAN has come a long way and has good reasons to be confident of its future. Maybe I will stop here and get Admiral Harris to take it up.
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MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
SINGAPORE
5 JUNE 2016