05 Jun 2016
Regional Security Challenges 15 Years On - Same Plot, Different Cast
Dr John Chipman, my fellow panellists, Minister Sajjan and Minister Antonov. First let me, together with Deputy Prime Minister Mr Teo Chee Hean, my (Senior) Ministers (of State for Defence) - Dr Mohamad Maliki and Mr Ong Ye Kung, Permanent Secretaries Chan Yeng Kit and Ng Chee Khern, Chief of Defence Force Major-General Perry Lim, welcome all of you to the 15th Shangri-La Dialogue.
In its inaugural meeting in 2002, as John Chipman reminded us, there were 161 delegates from 22 countries, together with 12 Ministers. This year, the number of delegates has more than tripled, now from 35 countries, and the number of Ministers have more than doubled to 30 Ministerial-level delegates. Over the years, the SLD has grown in numbers and stature. Singapore and my Ministry are honoured to play host, but as always, it has been your presence and your contributions that have established the Shangri-La Dialogue as the premier security forum in the Asia-Pacific region. As IISS informs me, we have a good problem - we have more delegates and we expect more delegates to come in successive years and we have to deal with it. And as with most meetings, when the numbers grow, sometimes we fall short of organisation of details. I ask for your forbearance as well as to give us feedback so that we can improve. But some of you have also commended us, especially the staff from the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) and the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF), who have tended to your needs. On behalf of all of us, I would like to thank the staff from MINDEF and the SAF for taking very good care of our guests. Thank you very much.
Security Challenges
For those of you who were here at the inception, you remember that Mr Lee Kuan Yew, then Singapore's Senior Minister, gave the inaugural address at the first SLD in 2002. I would recommend that speech to you and you can google it. It's on record. That speech was vintage LKY - the acuity of his perceptions and raw assessments shone through. Without distracting preamble, Mr Lee crystallised the essence of the two most important security challenges that would confront this region for years to come. Namely, the US-China relationship and global terrorism. Two main points - he touched just on them. In fact, he entitled his speech matter-of-factly "The East Asian Strategic Balance after 9/11". 15 years on, indeed these two challenges, these two same challenges, continue to take centre stage in the world. Some cast of main characters may have changed, but the main plot remains, albeit with different nuances and new complexities played out.
On the first challenge, the US-China relationship, Mr Lee remarked in 2002, and I quote:
"As a rising power, China cannot be expected to acquiesce in the status quo if it is against its interests. As the pre-eminent global power, US interest is in the preservation of the status quo. This fundamental difference of interests cannot be wished away. "
Against this main narrative of a pre-eminent and rising power, I think it will be useful to ask what has passed in the past 15 years? For the sake of brevity, let me approach this from the perspective of successive changes in leadership in both the US and China that, together with disruptive events after the 9/11 attack in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008, have impacted the relationship between the US and China, and indeed the rest of the World. Hu Jintao was the Chinese President from 2003 to 2013 and maintained the focus on economic reform. China's phenomenal growth for that decade averaged more than 10% a year in GDP terms. It was China's growth that kept Asia buoyant even as the European and the US economies stagnated. Asian economies rose with this tide brought in by China's growth -in particular, ASEAN, whose cumulative GDP grew over 300% in that decade. China's share in ASEAN's total trade more than tripled from 5% in 2000 to 16% in 2013. By then, China had become the top trading nation for ASEAN and Australasia and accounted for more than a quarter of intra-Asia trade. China's share of global trade had risen pari passu, more than doubled from nearly 6% to 12%, or about US$4.2 trillion.
For the US, the invasion into Iraq in 2003 under President George W Bush would eventually lead her and other countries into a military campaign that lasted almost nine years - for many countries, the longest deployment since World War II. President Obama would have to deal with the aftermath of this campaign and the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. In the defence arena, the US' rebalancing towards Asia started in 2011. For trade, the Trans-Pacific Partnership has been negotiated successfully and it will spur US economic edge and stimulate growth in the Asia-Pacific region, if it gets ratified by the US Congress in the last leg of the Obama Administration. And as all of us know and expect, a new President will lead the US come January next year.
In November 2012, President Xi Jinping was elected as the General Secretary of the Communist Party and the Chairman of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Military Commission, which made him the paramount leader of the CPC. President Xi vowed then, in his first speech as party Leader, to tackle corruption at the highest levels. This was in 2012. Less than a month later, President Xi toured Guangdong, his first trip outside Beijing, and he also spoke about the "Chinese Dream" - as "a strong nation", with "a strong military". Since then, President Xi has undertaken deep socio-political and military reforms at the highest levels and is now considered the "strongest Chinese leader after Mao Zedong". The economic agenda under President Xi is dominated by the One Belt One Road initiative, backed by the successful launch of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which now has a capital of US$100 billion from 57 founding member states. Whether he decides to remain as President for a third term or not, Xi Jinping at 62 years old, will be a dominant force in the leadership to steer China for the foreseeable future.
With US and China as the main protagonists, the South China Sea and territorial disputes therein, willy-nilly has provided the stage on which this strategic rivalry is being played out. ASEAN, with some members as dispute claimants, asserts its centrality - but still, a position attained by default - and has pushed for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. I think all of us here are conscious that more is at stake than disputed rocks or islands. As Mr Lee observed in his 2002 speech - "the competition for economic and diplomatic influence has started". This contest will de facto set new rules and players that will govern state-to-state relations and geo-politics in Asia and beyond for the decades to come.
Terrorism as a Common Threat
Mr Lee's second focus on terrorism in 2002 had great resonance, not least because it was framed by the attack that had just occurred the year prior on Manhattan's twin towers. These were images vividly etched in the minds of listeners. Reading his analysis inevitably evokes déjà vu. His description of the spread of austere Wahabist Islam through the financing of preachers and mosques remains valid today, if not more so. Iraq and Syria have replaced Afghanistan which radicalise and attract large numbers of Southeast Asian Muslims to wage jihad. ISIS has replaced Al-Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah, and with groups that have pledged allegiance to it, conducted the Paris attacks in 2015 and Brussels this year. In our region, the Bangkok bombing occurred last year and the Jakarta attacks early this year. Abu Sayyaf militants also kidnapped 14 Indonesian sailors in the Sulu Sea this March. We read regularly in Malaysia and Indonesia, arrests of would-be terrorists and foiled attacks.
But there are some differences comparing 2002 to the present. The recent attacks or foiled attempts are consequences of a deeper and stronger under-current. In the past three years alone, ISIS has recruited more sympathisers and operatives in ASEAN than Al-Qaeda did in the last decade, now with more than a thousand fighters in Iraq and Syria. Some transit through Singapore in the hope of eluding authorities by taking multiple hops to their final destination. Just three months ago, we caught four Indonesian travellers linked to ISIS while they were here in Singapore. We handed them back to the Indonesian counter-terrorism police. We did the same in November last year to two other Indonesian men who had planned to travel to Syria. Even construction workers from Bangladesh here have been radicalised while in Singapore by their fellow workers, to plot attacks in their home countries. All in, about 30 terrorist groups in this region have pledged allegiance publicly to ISIS, including Abu Sayyaf and Jamaah Ansharud Daulah (JAD), which conducted the Jakarta bombing with ISIS funding. In Malaysia, 14 suspected ISIS militants were recently arrested during a four-day operation across five states. Several personnel from the Malaysian Armed Forces, including two commandos, have also been found to have links to ISIS.
Returned fighters have linked up among themselves through their networks and declared their collective goal to establish a caliphate, motivated by, in Mr Lee's words, "a deeply-felt sense of Islamic brotherhood that transcends ethnicity and national boundaries" and "a shared ideology of universal jihad". Just two weeks ago, ISIS released its first propaganda video to target Southeast Asia explicitly, in the native languages of Malaysia and Indonesia. Training camps have been reported in Poso in Central Sulawesi and Southern Philippines. Terrorists have capitalised on existing smuggling routes to move people and arms in the region that include Southern Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. This gathering storm has the real potential to destabilise this region, if not tackled decisively and together.
Security forces, including militaries of individual countries, will have to combat terrorism rigorously. The threat will grow if terrorist groups become more organised to mount sophisticated, large-scale attacks with deadlier weapons. Collectively, we must work closely together to build up joint responses, and strengthen intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance efforts.
Where appropriate, we can combine resources for operations. In this light, the proposed Sulu Sea patrols between Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines are a welcome initiative to deal with maritime terrorism and smuggling in the region and curtail the movement of extremists. The ADMM and Plus countries have also conducted joint exercises on this front. Recently this year, some 3500 troops, 18 naval vessels, 25 aircraft and 40 Special Forces teams participated in the ADMM-Plus Maritime Security and Counter-Terrorism Exercise, which was held first in Brunei, moved to the South China Sea and ended in Singapore.
But in this battle, Mr Lee reminded then that "it is necessary to emphasise that the war against terrorism is not a war against Islam. The majority of Muslims have nothing to do with terrorism or extremism". This battle is against terrorists groups that "have hijacked Islam as their driving force and have given it a virulent twist… [We] must support tolerant non-militant Muslims so that they will prevail".
Conclusion
Let me conclude. As we did in the inaugural SLD in 2002, we continue to meet to address the challenges that threaten our collective security in this region and beyond. All things said and done, we have had relative peace and progress in this region in the last 15 years. Some harder issues will take a longer time to resolve, but I believe that the SLD continues to be a useful platform in our crucial endeavours. And once again, I want to thank you for adding your presence and your support to this process. Thank you very much. |