06 Sep 2005
Speech by George Yeo, Minister for Foreign Affairs, at The Global Leadership Forum in Kuala Lumpur
06/09/2005
Speech by George Yeo, Minister for Foreign Affairs, at The Global Leadership Forum in Kuala Lumpur
SPEECH BY GEORGE YEO, MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS, AT THE GLOBAL LEADERSHIP FORUM IN KUALA LUMPUR ON 6 SEP 05 AT 11.00 AM
RE-POSITIONING OURSELVES
KL ASEAN Summit
1. The ASEAN Summit in KL at the end of the year will be of particular importance. First, we will be launching the first meeting of the East Asia Summit involving the Leaders of the 10 ASEAN countries, China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. Second, we will begin the work of drawing up an ASEAN Charter which will be a mini-Constitution of the ASEAN Community we are building.
East Asia Summit
2. Although most of the 500 million people living in ASEAN do not realize this yet, these two developments will shape the future of ASEAN and Asia in this century. They are our collective response to the dramatic changes taking place in the world - globalisation, the re-emergence of China and India, the challenge of international terrorism and the revolutionary impact of new technologies. At the moment of conception, getting the DNA right is critical. As we re-position ASEAN for a new world, it is crucial that we work on the right design.
3. We have to adjust to China's rapid economic development which is transforming the global landscape. China's growth will bring prosperity to Southeast Asia as was always the case in history when China was in the ascendant and the China trade was in full flow. 600 years ago, the trade of Ming China led to the growth of Malacca. But we have to play to our strengths in Southeast Asia, not just the abundance of natural resources and a different climate and geography, but also cultures which are historically open to international trade and investment. We are also not a potential rival to any of the major powers. However, we can only make use of these advantages if we are integrated economically and more coordinated politically. Our strategy must be to have good relations with all the major powers and give each of them a major stake in our progress and well-being.
4. India is also making good progress. Since Narasimha Rao began the process of opening India in 1991, India grew at an annual growth rate of 6%. Last year, despite a bad monsoon, it grew at 7%. In the coming years, it will be able to sustain 7-8% growth. Although India is not progressing as fast as China, India as a democracy enjoys certain advantages like a well-established legal system. Like China, India has a huge reservoir of talented individuals many of whom are natural entrepreneurs. To get a sense of the numbers, China produced roughly 600,000 engineers last year and India another 350,000. In comparison, the US produced about 70,000 engineers and Japan some 55,000. In every field, from science to culture and sports, China and India, with 2.3 billion people between them, will become more prominent in the coming years.
5. We should ride on India's growth the way we are riding on China's growth. ASEAN's FTAs with both China and India are part of this strategy. What we must watch carefully is the improvement of relations between China and India. Historically, these two great civilizations did not have much contact with each other because of the great deserts of Central Asia and the high mountains of the Himalayas. They did meet episodically in Southeast Asia, not in combat but through trade and cultural contact. China's military defeat of India in 1962 soured bilateral relations for decades. It is only in recent years that their bilateral relations have improved. Earlier this year, Beijing and Delhi agreed on the principles for settling their border dispute, basically to exchange India's claim to Aksai Chin for China's claim to Arunachal Pradesh, along the present line of control. This is the last stretch of China's land border which has not yet been demarcated. The bilateral trade between China and India is growing rapidly. Five years ago, it was US$3 billion. This year, it is expected to reach US$18 billion. Both countries have set a target of US$30 billion by 2010.
6. Provided we do the right things in ASEAN, the growth of China and India will sweep us along in this century. If China and India are able to maintain good relations with each other, and the signs are good, this will be a golden century for Asia. Both countries want much better physical connections to the countries of Southeast Asia, not just air, land and sea links, but also electronic links and energy pipelines. China has greatly liberalised its skies. India is liberalising too, although not fast enough. We must not be left behind in ASEAN because good and cheap air links are absolutely essential for the operation of the modern economy. The faster we work towards open skies in ASEAN, the better. One day, we should negotiate open skies agreements with other regions as an ASEAN region, so that we have a stronger negotiating position.
7. In every area, we have to think and act strategically so that Southeast Asia becomes a major intermediary between China and India. This is our historical position and this should also be our future. In this way, the Chinese and Indian engines of growth will also pull us along. There are many things that we have to do to build the highways between China and India on land, at sea and in the air. Myanmar is a key piece in this construction because of its geographical position as a neighbour to both China and India. All of us in ASEAN have a vested interest in Myanmar's progress and development.
8. We must also work closely together among ourselves and with all major users to make sure that the sea lanes are safe. The Straits of Malacca and Singapore carry one-third of global seaborne trade, half of the global oil trade and 80% of the oil that is supplied to Japan and China.
9. We must also put more effort into energy cooperation. Both China and India are rightly obsessed with the long-term security of their energy supplies. There is now a proposal for Iranian gas to be piped through Pakistan to India and from there through Myanmar to China. This reduces the political risk of supply disruption to all the parties making the cost of financing cheaper. Our plans for energy cooperation in ASEAN must factor in the needs of China, India and Japan so that they have a vested interest in our security and development.
10. In positioning ourselves between China and India, we must also take into account the interest of the US, Japan, Europe and Australia so that they, too, want us to succeed. If we are able to do this, all of them will want ASEAN to be integrated and strong, with no one feeling excluded. The US, in particular, has been a major stabilizing force in East Asia since the Second World War. It will remain so for the foreseeable future.
11. The East Asia Summit will help us build the long-term architecture of peace and cooperation in Asia, with ASEAN at the centre. Good relations between China and India is critical. Japan is another pillar and good relations between China and Japan are also important. There is no danger that such an Asia will be exclusive because, however warm their relations, China, India and Japan are major powers will always have separate strategic interests. Having ASEAN in the driver's seat is also reassuring to everyone because we are a safe driver. Bringing in Australia and New Zealand sends a clear signal that we are open and inclusive. Indeed, a strong Asian community integrated economically will one day be the best guarantee of the WTO multilateral trading system because it encompasses more than half the world's population. Hundreds of millions of young people can see their lives improving by joining the global marketplace. Against this landscape, the coming inaugural East Asia Summit will accelerate the process of Asian economic integration with far-reaching consequences for all of us.
12. Together with APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation), ASEM (Asia Europe Meeting), the ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) and the ASEAN plus meetings, the East Asia Summit will complete our major construction for the future.
ASEAN Charter
13. At the heart of this new Asia, we need an ASEAN that is integrated and economically vibrant. This leads me to the second major development which will take place in KL at the end of the year - drawing up the ASEAN Charter. Two years ago, under Indonesia's leadership, the ASEAN Leaders agreed on the establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2020 with three components - security, economic and social/cultural. We are being driven together, not so much by a natural affection for one another as by huge challenges which confront us collectively. Either we accept a common destiny, or we will be cast aside with individual ASEAN countries having to strike separate deals with different major powers. A divided ASEAN will see all of them jostling for power and influence in the region. During the Cold War, Southeast Asia was sharply divided between the US and Soviet camps, with the Mekong representing the boundary between two worlds. The result was the Indo-China War and more bombs falling on Laos alone than on all of Europe during the Second World War. We must not allow Southeast Asia to be balkanized again.
14. Drawing up the ASEAN Charter requires clarity of what we see our common future to be. Only then can we agree on sensible rules and build effective institutions. The ASEAN Secretariat which does a good job today cannot, with its present resources, cope with the growing workload as we strengthen both our internal processes and our external connections. When the ASEAN Foreign Ministers met in Cebu in April and in Vientiane in July, we agreed that the Leaders should appoint an Eminent Persons Group (EPG) to help sketch out what ASEAN should be, say, by the year 2020, by which time, both China and India would be major powers in the world. In the end, ASEAN Leaders would have to decide which recommendations to accept. Our officials can then begin work on the actual drafting.
15. Many countries have already indicated their nominations for the EPG: Ali Alatas from Indonesia, Fidel Ramos from the Philippines, Musa Hitam from Malaysia, Nguyen Manh Cam from Vietnam and Jayakumar from Singapore. We are fortunate to have such a group of wise and able men advise our Leaders.
16. We have to learn from the European experience after the Second World War. After two wars which eviscerated the continent, and confronting a new threat from the East, the European nations by a series of steps over several decades cast their lot together to create today's Union. The Franco-German reconciliation paved the way for the European Coal and Steel Community in 1952 integrating two strategic industries thus preventing national rearmament. In 1957, the Treaty of Rome established the European Economic Community, informally known as the Common Market. European integration inexorably went beyond economic integration to political and social integration. The EEC became the European Community (EC) in 1967. It grew and added new members becoming the European Union in 1992. The European Commission's exclusive competence on trade and competion was important for economic integration. The establishment of the European Court of Justice as the final court of appeal led to the harmonisation of national laws. The creation of a single currency further bound the member states together. At every major step along the way, there were furious debates whether integration was too much or too fast or too complicated. Having being voted down in the French and Dutch referendums recently, the proposed new European Constitution might never be passed. But this is only a bump on the road. Whatever the criticisms, however, the European construction has created the longest period of peace and cooperation even seen in the history of Europe. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the EU was able to integrate countries which were deadly enemies not long ago. By any historical standard, the European construction is a very great achievement.
17. Many European leaders have indicated their willingness to help ASEAN achieve a higher level of integration. We thank them for this. We are grateful to the EU for the help extended to us after the tsunami and for the role it is now playing to bring peace and development to Aceh.
18. However, I doubt if ASEAN integration will ever reach even half the level of integration in Europe today. Unlike the European countries which share a common heritage in Greece, Rome and Judeo-Christianity, we are much more diverse in Southeast Asia. In fact, we are probably the most diverse region in the world in terms of external cultural influence, religion, political systems and economic development. For example, it is hard to imagine Singapore accepting the free movement of people or national governments adopting secular policies which completely ignore the position of Islam in Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei, or of Buddhism in Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos. We have a different set of historical realities to grapple with in Southeast Asia. Despite all this, however, there is a coherence in Southeast Asia which we know exists and grows stronger by the day. Some historians explain that, whatever our diversity, we are still a collection of states which lie along the trade routes between East Asia and South Asia, alternately receiving the cultural influence of both, and, more recently, from the West. Because Southeast Asia was never united as one political entity, there is tolerance for diversity, a willingness to syncretize, a cosmopolitan spirit which welcomes foreigners in our midst and the mixing of blood, especially among members of the elite. In our historical memory, we have had to respond to the waxing and waning of powers nearby and farther away. Every time, the east-west trade flourished, we prospered with it. The growth of the east-west trade in this century will dwarf anything that has ever been seen before and will open up a whole new horizon for us.
19. The ASEAN Charter cannot be drawn up overnight. Neither will it be the be-all and end-all of the ASEAN construction. However, it does represent a key milestone on an exciting journey. There is no other road. Either we become stronger as a region or we will fragment. Other regions in the world are also integrating as borders become porous. There is a competitive dynamic among regions in the world that we have to be mindful of. In the coming years, it is important to spread the ASEAN idea to all our people especially to the young, so that we internalize a greater sense of ASEAN citizenship. From time to time, difficult decisions will have to be made which will affect the man in the street. It is important that he understands what we are trying to do and how it is in his interest.
The ASEAN Idea
20. There are many things we can do to promote a stronger sense of ASEAN citizenship. Our education systems should ensure that our students have a better understanding of the history, geography and culture of Southeast Asia generally. The EU has a programme called SOCRATES which promote cultural exchange and the sharing of a common European identity through a variety of programmes for students. Our young people should visit each other's country the way Europeans have done since the end of the last War. For example, many of us who studied in Europe travelled the length and breadth of the continent on Eurail which provide special discounts to students, and staying in youth hostels. Perhaps we can have an ASEAN equivalent which facilitates travel not only by rail but also by long-distance coaches and budget airlines. Every year, the Eurovision Song Contest commands the attention of all Europeans giving them a sense of being one. Perhaps we can do something similar. We need many activities which enable us to laugh and cry together because we can only become a community if we share common emotional experiences.
21. To some extent, this is already happening. Our response to the Asian financial crisis demonstrated a certain solidarity. The outbreak of SARS bonded us in a way we never expected. Our cooperation after the tsunami convinced us of the need to pool our national relief capabilities. Issues once thought to brook no external interference are now seen differently. To mediate the conflict in the Southern Philippines, Manila enlisted the assistance of Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta. Earlier this year, the Thai Government invited Hashim Muzadi from the Nahdalatul Ulama of Indonesia to hold dialogues with Muslims in Southern Thailand. More recently, the Indonesian Government invited ASEAN to participate in the Aceh Monitoring Mission. Myanmar's decision to give up the ASEAN chairmanship next year is also an expression of ASEAN solidarity. When I met Pak Hassan and Syed Hamid last month to discuss maritime security, we agreed that that this is an issue which should concern ASEAN as a whole. Without ASEAN cooperation, solving the problem of air and water pollution will be impossible. The problem of the haze from Sumatra and Borneo which reached dangerous levels in Malaysia a few weeks ago can only be solved if we solve it at the ASEAN level. On terrorism, the security agencies in ASEAN have never worked as closely before.
22. However, to be more effective and efficient in our response to both problems and opportunities, we need structures and systems. There is much to be done. When the EPG members receive their charge from the Leaders in Kuala Lumpur, the work will begin.
23. For the first time this year, ASEAN Day on 8 August was celebrated with a high profile in all ten countries. In doing this, we send a signal, not only to our own people, but also to our friends. An ASEAN growing stronger year by year will help keep the whole of Asia together, providing a neutral but friendly meeting place for China, India and other powers. A strong ASEAN is the pre-condition for the construction of a new Asia which is likely to become the most important pole of the global economy in this century.
24. Therefore, we have compelling reasons to work hard for a successful ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur this year. Much is at stake.